037: Falling Off Mount Stupid: The Confidence Curve of the Dunning-Kruger Effect

Do you remember being absolutely sure you were right about something—only to look back and cringe because you were both loud and wrong? Same. In this episode, we talk about the Dunning-Kruger Effect—why confidence often appears before competence, how experience humbles us, and what it really takes to grow into wisdom. From simulated carpentry fails to emotional comedowns, we explore how ego, humility, and even adrenaline shape our learning curve. Also: imaginary injuries, underwear overpacking, and the unpredictable pharmacists in our brains.

 

10,000-Foot View of this Episode:

• Confidence Before Competence: We dive into the Dunning-Kruger Effect and the strange truth that people often feel most confident when they know the least. Cole explains the classic curve—Mount Stupid, the Valley of Despair, and the slow climb toward Enlightenment—and how ego, not expertise, fuels that early peak.
• Experience: The Fear Filter. Does gaining experience make you fearless? Not exactly. Mecca challenges Simon Sinek’s quote about fear disappearing with experience, pointing out that sometimes, the more you know, the more aware you are of potential risks. Callie draws a hilarious line between water skiing and snow skiing to make her case.
• Imposter Syndrome vs. Overconfidence: We unpack the delicate balance between faking it till you make it and knowing enough to question yourself. The group reflects on performative confidence, caution as a sign of wisdom, and how curiosity helps you walk the tightrope between imposter syndrome and blind certainty.
• Humility Isn’t Soft—It’s Smart. The conversation explores how humility is often misunderstood as weakness, especially in competitive environments. From social media creators to YouTube tutorials, we talk about why being open to being wrong makes someone more trustworthy—not less.
• Our Brains: Tiny, Unpredictable Pharmacists. In this week’s Weird Thought, we marvel at the human brain’s ability to produce potent chemical cocktails on demand—like adrenaline, dopamine, and serotonin. We ask: What would happen if you were stuck in a permanent adrenaline high? (Spoiler: It’s not great for your heart.)
• Real Skills Under Real Pressure: Cole and Callie bring in insights from a book series about survival and stress, noting that you may only retain 50% of your skills in high-stakes moments. The crew talks about how adrenaline clouds memory, the importance of training, and why self-awareness matters more than we think.
• Confidence in the Age of “Loud Experts”: Do the loudest voices in media, politics, or even DIY tutorials deserve your trust? Probably not. The gang reflects on why people who say “double-check me on this” tend to earn more credibility, and how knowing what you don’t know is a true sign of expertise.

 

Memorable Quotes:

• "The younger you are, the more risk prone you are because you oftentimes don't understand the consequences of the risks you're taking." – Cole
• “I'm tired of talking about underwear.” – Mecca
• “We have to maintain a sense of humility in order to be successful experts at anything.” – Callie
• "I like to be prepared for as many situations as possible." – Cole
• “From that peak of Mount Stupid to the Valley of Despair, sometimes that takes a long time and sometimes that's a drop and you hit the bottom and it hurts like everything.” – Mecca
• “The more open minded you are, the more likely I am to be curious about what it is that you're saying.” – Callie
• "Never double down. Doubling down is only for Blackjack." – Cole
• “Sometimes it is easier to say I'm wrong than other times.” – Mecca
• “If you ask me to get on Snapchat right now, I might smack you.” – Callie

 

 

Resources Mentioned:

• Simon Sinek’s quote, “As you gain experience, you lose fear,” from a Diary of a CEO podcast episode sparked our debate on whether wisdom really makes you braver… or just more cautious.
• The Dunning-Kruger Effect: The cognitive bias at the heart of this episode: why people often feel most confident when they know the least.
• 299 Days book series is a survivalist fiction series that led to our Weird Thought about brain chemistry, adrenaline and how the body performs under pressure.
• Young House Love’s DIY rule is a smart take on when to try something yourself and when to call in the pros, based on how bad the worst-case scenario could be.
• Abbott and Costello’s “Who’s on First?” is a classic comedy sketch that weirdly mirrors the confusion of navigating confidence, knowledge and self-awareness.
• LP Quinn Elementary School inspired our Good News segment highlighting amazing students who have raised over $13,000 for hospice care—proof that kindness and impact have no age requirement.

 

Call to Action:

We’ve all stood on the peak of Mount Stupid at some point—loud, proud and totally wrong. Now we want to hear from you. What’s your “I was sure… and then I wasn’t” moment? Have you ever looked back and cringed at your past confidence? Share your story with us in the  comments—we promise it’s a judgment-free zone (we've been there too). And if you enjoyed this episode, leave a review or send it to the friend who always swears they've “totally got this.”